UPSC Mains 2024 GS1 Q7: model answer
What is the concept of a ‘demographic winter’? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate.
What the question wants
Define demographic winter and test whether the world is heading there, with data.
How to structure it
Intro: definition. Body: (1) Signs that parts of the world are entering it; (2) But not the whole world; (3) India. Conclusion: The world as a whole is moving slowly towards a demographic autumn.
- 1(1) Signs that parts of the world are entering it
- 2(2) But not the whole world
- 3(3) India
Model answer
'Demographic winter' is a long spell of fertility well below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman, leading to an ageing and then shrinking population.
Parts of the world are entering it
- South Korea's fertility fell to about 0.7 in 2023, the world's lowest.
- Japan, Italy and China are shrinking; China's population has fallen since 2022.
- Results: fewer workers per pensioner, labour shortages, slower growth.
But not the whole world
- Sub-Saharan Africa still has high fertility.
- The UN's World Population Prospects 2024 sees the global population peaking at about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
India: fertility is 2.0 (NFHS-5), below replacement, though numbers will grow for some decades; Kerala and Tamil Nadu are ageing fast.
Several countries are already in winter while the world as a whole drifts towards it. Elderly care, women's work and productivity need attention now.
Keywords, cases and data to drop in
replacement fertility 2.1 ageing South Korea WPP 2024 India TFR 2.0
Where most answers lose marks
- Saying world population is already falling.
Fresh examples from current affairs
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17 May 2026Question text as printed in the official UPSC question paper: https://www.upsc.gov.in/sites/default/files/QP_CSM_2024_GenStud_I_03102024.pdf The model answer is original Battle IAS work; use it to learn structure, not to memorise.