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IMD first-stage forecast: below-normal monsoon at 92% of LPA

1 min readMonsoon
Battle IAS current affairs title card: IMD first-stage forecast: below-normal monsoon at 92% of LPA (GS1 · Monsoon, 13 April 2026)
Asked by UPSCPrelims 20261 PYQ

UPSC has already asked about this. Read the story with these questions in mind.

What happened

  • IMD’s first long-range forecast put 2026 monsoon rainfall at 92% of LPA, i.e. below normal (90–95%) [PIB].
  • The 29 May update lowered it to 90% [PIB].

Background

  • LPA (1971–2020) is 87 cm; El Niño was developing.

Why it matters

  • A weak monsoon forecast is a warning for farm output and food prices.

How to use this in Mains

GS-I Important geophysical phenomena; monsoon

  1. As per PIB (2026-04-13): IMD's first long-range forecast put 2026 monsoon rainfall at 92% of LPA, i.e. below normal (90–95%).
  2. A weak monsoon forecast is a warning for farm output and food prices.
Quotable data point

The 29 May update lowered it to 90%.

PIB: IMD: LRF April 2026, 13 Apr 2026

Exam angle

UPSC

Prelims: forecast categories.

Practice MCQs

Original practice questions (not PYQs).

Practice · UPSC

April forecast

Answer (b) & explanation

PIB.

Practice · UPSC

Below-normal range

Answer (a) & explanation

PIB.

Practice · UPSC

Driver of weak monsoon

Answer (a) & explanation

PIB.

Go deeper

ExplainerWeather Forecasting in India and Mission Mausam: IMD, Numerical Models, Doppler Radars, Bharat Forecast System, Supercomputers, Weather Modification and Early Warnings (UPSC Notes + PYQs)ExplainerIndian Monsoon: Mechanism, Onset and Advance, Breaks, Retreat, and Factors like ENSO, IOD and Jet Streams (UPSC Notes + PYQs)

Official source: PIB: IMD: LRF April 2026, 13 Apr 2026

facts from cited sources only; faculty review pending