Chapter 9 · Topic 9.1 · Prelims + Mains1 of 3
Human Geography: Population, transition and composition
Key points
- Population: distribution, four phases of growth, demographic transition (2012), TFR (2024);
- Composition: demographic dividend (2011, 2013); sex ratio in rich regions (2014) and among
Prelims box: facts and traps
| Census 2011 | Figure |
|---|---|
| Sex ratio | 943 females per 1,000 males |
| Child sex ratio (0–6) | 919 |
| Sex ratio, Scheduled Tribes | 990 |
| Sex ratio, Scheduled Castes | 945 |
| Literacy (7+) | 74.04%. |
- From 1921 to 1951 growth was steady; from 1951 to 1981 it exploded as deaths fell fast while births stayed high; after 1981 growth has slowed as births fall too.
- Before 1921 numbers barely grew, as famine and disease kept deaths high; 1921 is called the year of the great divide.
- NCERT's table on the doubling time of world population shows about 500 million in 1650 and 1,000 million in 1804, then 2,000 million in 1927 and 4,000 million in 1974.
- Trap (UPSC Prelims 2012): all the statements are correct.
- Trap: The Green Revolution and falling fertility have proved him wrong for India so far, but the worry returns with water stress and soil decline.
Population: size, growth and the demographic
transition Human geography asks where people live, why, and what that does to land and resources. India has about 18% of the world’s people on about 2.4% of its land. Census 2011, the latest completed count, found 121.09 crore people, with a density of 382 per sq km. People crowd the fertile, well-watered northern plains and coasts, and thin out in deserts, high mountains and dense forests.
Growth has four phases. Before 1921 numbers barely grew, as famine and disease kept deaths high; 1921 is called the year of the great divide. From 1921 to 1951 growth was steady; from 1951 to 1981 it exploded as deaths fell fast while births stayed high; after 1981 growth has slowed as births fall too. Decadal growth in 2001–11 was 17.7%, the sharpest fall since independence.
The demographic transition model links this to development. Prelims 2012 asked for the correct order of these specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development: first high birthrate with high death rate, then high birthrate with low death rate, and finally low birthrate with low death rate (option c, 2, 3, 1). India is now late in the third stage: NFHS-5 (2019–21) put its total fertility rate at 2.0, below the replacement level of 2.1.
Consider the following specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development : 1. Low birthrate with low death rate 2. High birthrate with high death rate 3. High birthrate with low death rate Select the correct order of the above stages using the codes given below :
- 1, 2, 3
- 2, 1, 3
- 2, 3, 1
- 3, 2, 1
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Answer: (c) · UPSC official key
Prelims 2024 asked how the total fertility rate is defined: the average number of live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age (option d). It is not births per 1,000 people (that is the crude birth rate), nor births minus deaths (that is natural growth). Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Meghalaya are still above replacement; most southern and western States are well below it.
The total fertility rate in an economy is defined as :
- the number of children born per 1000 people in the population in a year.
- the number of children born to a couple in their lifetime in a given population.
- the birth rate minus death rate.
- the average number of live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age.
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Answer: (d) · UPSC official key
Thomas Malthus (1798) argued that population grows geometrically while food grows only arithmetically, so famine and disease must check numbers. The Green Revolution and falling fertility have proved him wrong for India so far, but the worry returns with water stress and soil decline. The demographic transition model is the more useful lens for answers.
Mains 2026 asked candidates to critically examine the challenges of demographic transition in contemporary India: an ageing south beside a young north, jobs for a large workforce, and care and pensions for the old. Mains 2015 asked to critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty or poverty is the main cause of population increase. Both run together: poor families need more hands and face higher child deaths, and large families stay poor. Mains 2019 argued that empowering women is the key to control population growth; girls’
schooling, jobs and health care cut fertility faster than any target. Mains 2021 asked for the main objectives of Population Education: awareness of family size, health and gender equality, taught through schools and adult literacy.
Critically examine the challenges of demographic transition in contemporary India.
Critically examine whether growing population is the cause of poverty or poverty is the main cause of population increase in India.
“Empowering women is the key to control population growth.” Discuss.
Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail.
Age, sex and literacy: the demographic dividend and
sex ratio Composition means the mix of a population by age, sex, literacy, work and residence. It matters more for policy than raw size.
Prelims 2011 asked why India is regarded as a country with “Demographic Dividend”: because of its high population in the age group of 15-64 years (option b). Over half of Indians are of working age, and the share keeps rising till around the 2040s. Prelims 2013 asked: To obtain full benefits of demographic dividend, what should India do? Promote skill development (option a). Without skills and jobs, the dividend turns into a burden of jobless youth.
India is regarded as a country with “Demographic Dividend”. This is due to
- Its high population in the age group below 15 years
- Its high population in the age group of 15-64 years
- Its high population in the age group above 65 years
- Its high total population
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Answer: (b) · UPSC official key
To obtain full benefits of demographic dividend, what should India do?
- Promoting skill development
- Introducing more social security schemes
- Reducing infant mortality rate
- Privatization of higher education
Show answer
Answer: (a) · UPSC official key
| Census 2011 | Figure | Top and bottom |
|---|---|---|
| Sex ratio | 943 females per 1,000 males | Kerala 1,084 (highest); Haryana 879 (lowest State) |
| Child sex ratio (0–6) | 919 | Haryana 834, the lowest |
| Sex ratio, Scheduled Tribes | 990 | Higher than the national figure |
| Sex ratio, Scheduled Castes | 945 | Close to the national figure |
| Literacy (7+) | 74.04% | Kerala highest; Bihar lowest |
Mains 2014 asked why some of the most prosperous regions of India have an adverse sex ratio for women. Punjab, Haryana and Delhi are rich, yet their sex ratios are among the worst. Reasons: a strong son preference tied to land and inheritance, dowry, small-family norms that squeeze out daughters, and easy access to sex-selection technology despite the PCPNDT Act. Mains 2015 asked how to explain the statistics that show that the sex ratio in Tribes in India is more favourable to women than among Scheduled Castes: tribal societies have little dowry, value women’s work in fields and forests, and give women more freedom in marriage.
Why do some of the most prosperous regions of India have an adverse sex ratio for women? Give your arguments.
How do you explain the statistics that show that the sex ratio in Tribes in India is more favourable to women than the sex ratio among Scheduled Castes?
Work: Census 2011 counted about 40% of people as workers. Main workers work six months or more in a year; marginal workers work less. Agriculture still employs the largest share, though its share in output is much smaller, which is the root of rural underemployment.
Mains box: analysis and answer points
- transition Human geography asks where people live, why, and what that does to land and resources.
- India has about 18% of the world's people on about 2.4% of its land.
- Census 2011, the latest completed count, found 121.09 crore people, with a density of 382 per sq km.
- Likely next angle: NFHS-5 fertility below replacement; Census 2027
- Asked: Mains 2026 (GS Paper I, 15 marks): Critically examine the challenges of demographic transition in contemporary India.
Practice
Practice MCQs (8)
NCERT describes the world's population as very unevenly distributed. Broadly, what share of the world's population lives in about 10 per cent of its land area?
Answer (d) & explanation
NCERT states that, broadly, 90 per cent of the world's population lives in about 10 per cent of its land area. It quotes George B. Cressey on Asia ('many places where people are few and few places where people are very many') and adds that the 10 most populous countries hold about 60 per cent of the world's people, six of them in Asia.
NCERT uses the age-sex pyramid of Japan as an example of a declining population. A pyramid with a narrow base and a tapered top of this kind indicates:
Answer (a) & explanation
NCERT's three model pyramids are Nigeria (triangular, wide base: an expanding population with high birth rates), Australia (bell-shaped, tapering at the top: birth and death rates almost equal, a near-constant population) and Japan (narrow base, tapered top: low birth and death rates). NCERT adds that population growth in such developed countries is usually zero or negative.
With reference to the three-stage model of demographic transition described by NCERT, consider the following statements:
1. In the first stage, both fertility and mortality are high, and population growth is slow.
2. In the second stage, fertility falls first while mortality remains high.
3. In the last stage, both fertility and mortality decline considerably, and the population is either stable or grows slowly.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Answer (b) & explanation
Statements 1 and 3 are correct. In NCERT's model the first stage has high fertility and high mortality, so growth is slow; people are mostly agrarian and life expectancy is low. In the second stage it is mortality that falls first, through better sanitation and health care, while fertility stays high at the beginning and declines only with time; this gap produces a large net addition to population. In the last stage both rates are low and the population is stable or grows slowly.
Consider the following statements about the growth of world population:
1. The world's population reached about one billion around the year 1804.
2. It took only about 12 years for the world's population to rise from five billion to six billion.
3. According to the United Nations, the world's population reached eight billion in November 2022.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Answer (d) & explanation
All three statements are correct. NCERT's table on the doubling time of world population shows about 500 million in 1650 and 1,000 million in 1804, then 2,000 million in 1927 and 4,000 million in 1974. NCERT also notes that it took more than a million years to reach the first billion but only 12 years to go from five to six billion. The UN marked 15 November 2022 as the 'Day of Eight Billion'.
In demography, the term 'population momentum' refers to:
Answer (b) & explanation
Population momentum is the growth built into a youthful age structure. Even if fertility dropped at once to replacement level, a population with many young people would keep growing for decades, because the number of women of childbearing age keeps rising for a while. UN DESA's World Population Prospects 2024 identifies this momentum of past growth as the main driver of global population increase through the middle of the century.
With reference to the religious composition of India's population as per the Census of 2011, consider the following statements:
1. Christians form a majority of the population in Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur.
2. Punjab is the only State in which Sikhs form a majority of the population.
3. Buddhists are concentrated mostly in Maharashtra.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Answer (b) & explanation
Statements 2 and 3 are correct. Christians are a majority in Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya, not Manipur: in Manipur Hindus and Christians were each about 41 per cent in 2011, so neither formed a majority. Punjab (about 58 per cent Sikh) is the only Sikh-majority State. NCERT notes that Buddhists are concentrated mostly in Maharashtra, which holds about three-fourths of India's Buddhists, with Buddhist-majority areas in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Tripura and Lahaul–Spiti.
Consider the following countries:
1. China
2. Germany
3. Russian Federation
4. Brazil According to the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2024, the population of how many of the above countries had already peaked in size before 2024?
Answer (c) & explanation
Three of them. UN DESA reports that in 63 countries and areas, holding about 28 per cent of the world's people, the population peaked before 2024; the group includes China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation. Brazil belongs to the next group of 48 countries whose populations are projected to peak between 2025 and 2054, along with Iran, Türkiye and Viet Nam. India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the USA are expected to keep growing through 2054.
With reference to the United Nations' World Population Prospects 2024, consider the following statements:
1. The world's population is projected to peak at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s.
2. India's population is projected to keep growing until the end of the twenty-first century.
3. The global total fertility rate is still slightly above the replacement level of 2.1.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Answer (c) & explanation
Statements 1 and 3 are correct. UN DESA projects the world's population to rise from 8.2 billion in 2024 to a peak of about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, then fall to about 10.2 billion by 2100. The global fertility rate is 2.25, down from 3.31 in 1990, so it is still slightly above 2.1 even though more than half of all countries are below replacement. Statement 2 is wrong: India, though it will remain the most populous country, is projected to peak in the early 2060s at about 1.7 billion and then decline to about 1.5 billion by 2100.
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In 150 words, explain the significance of Human Geography with one recent example.
Flashcards (11)
Order of demographic transition stages?
High birth and death; high birth, low death; low birth and death.
Define total fertility rate.
Average live births a woman would have by the end of her child-bearing age.
India's TFR in NFHS-5?
2.0, below replacement (2.1).
Year of the great divide in India's population
history? 1921.
Decadal growth 2001–11?
17.7%.
Demographic dividend comes from which
age group? 15–64 years.
Key step to reap the dividend?
Skill development.
India's sex ratio in Census 2011?
943.
Child sex ratio in Census 2011?
919.
Sex ratio among Scheduled Tribes (2011)?
990.
Urban share in Census 2011?
31.16%.
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