INCOIS AI model: El Niño likely to persist till Feb 2027

The 2026 El Niño and the monsoon: what happened?

El Niño is a warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the equatorial Pacific. The Minister said it has historically gone with weaker monsoon rain over parts of India. But he was careful: the Indian Ocean Dipole, the MJO and winds in the season also decide the outcome, so the situation is being watched closely.

• INCOIS’s own AI/ML system gives probabilistic forecasts with uncertainty estimates.
• El Niño may change circulation over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal and raise the chance of marine heatwaves.
• Effects on ocean mixing and nutrients could affect fish distribution and coastal ecosystems.
• Changes in waves and swell may affect navigation, offshore work and coastal activity.
• Under the Deep Ocean Mission, ₹145.06 crore is allocated this financial year for mapping marine resources.

What had IMD and INCOIS said earlier in 2026?

• IMD’s updated forecast (29 May 2026) put June-September rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average, with a model error of plus or minus 4%.
• It gave an 84% probability of below normal or less rainfall, and expected neutral IOD conditions through the season.
• INCOIS began specialised El Niño bulletins for maritime sectors in June 2026; the first said the event would peak in November 2026 to January 2027.
• That bulletin warned of thermal stress in the north Indian Ocean, especially in March-May 2027, with risks of coral bleaching and lower sardine and mackerel catch.

What tools does INCOIS use?

• Ocean gliders, moored buoys, Argo floats, tide gauges and satellites, with data assimilation.
• High-resolution models for storm surge, high waves, swell surge and high currents.
• Ocean State Forecasts of waves, winds, swell, currents and sea surface temperature up to ten days ahead.

What do the forecasts say?

How can El Niño reach Indian shores?

1. Warming in the equatorial Pacific (El Niño)
2. Changes in atmospheric circulation
3. Weaker monsoon rain over parts of India, unless IOD and MJO offset it
4. Warmer Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal; more marine heatwaves
5. Effects on fish, corals and coastal activity

Why does the 2026 El Niño and the monsoon matter?

What are the challenges in the 2026 El Niño and the monsoon?

• ENSO forecasts are probabilities, not certainties; the range is 70 to 90 per cent.
• The monsoon depends on several drivers at once, which makes a single-factor reading risky.
• Marine heatwaves and coral bleaching are hard to reverse once they set in.
• Coastal communities need advisories in time and in local languages.

What should be done next on the 2026 El Niño and the monsoon?

• Keep updating ENSO and IOD forecasts and share them with States and farmers.
• Prepare contingency crop plans for rain-deficit areas.
• Use INCOIS bulletins to guide fishing and port operations.
• Expand ocean observation and deep-ocean mapping under the Deep Ocean Mission.

What can Prelims ask on the 2026 El Niño and the monsoon?

• INCOIS: Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (MoES).
• El Niño 2026: formed May 2026; likely till Feb 2027 (70 to 90%).
• Other monsoon drivers: IOD, MJO.
• LPA of monsoon rainfall: 87 cm (1971-2020 data).
• Deep Ocean Mission: ₹145.06 crore this year for mapping marine resources.

How to write about the 2026 El Niño and the monsoon in Mains

Practice question (15 marks, 250 words): El Niño is an important but not the sole driver of the Indian summer monsoon. Discuss, with reference to the 2026 outlook and its likely effects on India’s coastal and marine sectors.

• Intro: El Niño 2026, INCOIS forecast.
• Monsoon link and other drivers: IOD, MJO.
• Effects: farming, fisheries, marine heatwaves, coasts.
• Preparedness: INCOIS tools, IMD forecasts, advisories.
• Way forward.