UPSC Mains 2015 GS Paper 2 Q13: model answer

In 2014 the Rangarajan Committee estimated that 29.5% of Indians were poor in 2011–12; the Tendulkar method had given 21.9% for the same year. The numbers disagreed on the level. Both, and every later estimate, agreed on the direction.

The estimates

• Lakdawala (1993): calorie-based lines.
• Tendulkar (2009): poverty fell from 37.2% (2004–05) to 21.9% (2011–12).
• Rangarajan (2014): 38.2% to 29.5% over 2009–10 to 2011–12, with a higher line.
• NITI Aayog MPI: the headcount of multidimensionally poor fell from about 29% (2013–14) to about 11% (2022–23).
• World Bank (2025): extreme poverty at the new $3 a day line fell from 27.1% (2011–12) to 5.3% (2022–23), using HCES data.

Rural and urban indicators

• Rural poverty has always been higher but fell faster after 2005, helped by MGNREGA, wages and transfers.
• The rural–urban gap in consumption narrowed in HCES 2022–23.
• Urban poverty is often hidden in slums, informal jobs and high rents, which consumption lines miss.

Caveats

• No official line since 2011–12; methods changed, so comparisons are imperfect.
• Many people just above the line are vulnerable to shocks; Covid pushed many back temporarily.
• Inequality rose even as poverty fell.
• Nutrition indicators (stunting) improved more slowly.

Verdict

Yes, all estimates show a decline, and it is real. But how much poverty remains depends on where the line is drawn, and urban vulnerability is underestimated.