UPSC Mains 2015 GS Paper 2 Q18: model answer

India has served eight terms as a non-permanent member, most recently in 2021–22, is the most populous country and among the largest troop contributors to UN peacekeeping. Yet the Council still reflects the world of 1945.

Procedural obstacles

• Article 108 of the UN Charter: any amendment needs two-thirds of the General Assembly and ratification by two-thirds of member states, including all five permanent members.
• Intergovernmental negotiations since 2009 have no single negotiating text.

Political obstacles

• China has never clearly supported India's bid, and its veto is decisive.
• Uniting for Consensus (Pakistan, Italy, Argentina, South Korea and others) opposes new permanent seats.
• African Union demands two permanent seats with veto (the Ezulwini Consensus), complicating a package deal.
• Veto question: G4 countries offered to forgo the veto for 15 years, but the P5 are reluctant to share power.
• Concerns about India's nuclear status outside the NPT.
• Some P5 members support India in words but not in negotiations.

India's strategy

• G4 coalition with Brazil, Germany and Japan.
• Support from the US, UK, France and Russia stated publicly.
• L.69 group of developing countries.
• Building credentials: peacekeeping, vaccine supplies, G20 presidency (2023) and the voice of the Global South.

Conclusion

India's case is strong, but the Charter makes change hostage to those who gain from the status quo. Patience, coalitions and growing economic weight are India's best tools.