UPSC Mains 2021 GS Paper 2 Q20: model answer

On 15 September 2021 the US, UK and Australia announced AUKUS. Australia would acquire nuclear-powered submarines, cancelling a $66 billion deal with France, which recalled its ambassadors in protest.

What AUKUS is

• Pillar I: Australia to get US Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s and later a jointly designed SSN-AUKUS, sharing naval nuclear propulsion technology for the first time since the US–UK deal of 1958.
• Pillar II: cooperation on AI, quantum, hypersonics, cyber and undersea capabilities.

Will it supersede existing partnerships?

• No: it is a narrow military-technology pact among three allies, while the Quad is a broad, non-military partnership including India.
• It complements the Quad, ASEAN-led forums and bilateral partnerships.
• ASEAN centrality remains, though some members, like Indonesia and Malaysia, worry about an arms race.

Strength

• Deep trust among Five Eyes partners.
• Long-term technology transfer that will make Australia a major undersea power.
• Signals US commitment to the Indo-Pacific.

Weaknesses

• High cost and long timelines; US shipyard capacity is limited.
• Non-proliferation concerns about transferring naval nuclear technology to a non-nuclear-weapon state.
• Dependence on US politics, which led to a review of the pact in 2025.
• Friction with France at its launch, later eased through dialogue.

Impact

• Stronger deterrence against China in the western Pacific and South China Sea.
• China calls it Cold War thinking and may accelerate its own build-up.
• For India: a stronger Australia is good for the Indian Ocean, and India can engage Pillar II technologies; India did not seek membership, preferring the Quad.

Conclusion

AUKUS adds hard power to the Indo-Pacific without replacing the Quad's softer, wider role. For India, it is a useful development that leaves its strategic autonomy intact.