UPSC Mains 2022 GS Paper 3 Q17: model answer

In 2024, the world's average temperature was, for the first time in a calendar year, more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The number that scientists warned about had arrived.

What global warming is

• Gases like carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide trap heat that the Earth would otherwise radiate to space.
• Since the industrial age, burning coal, oil and gas and clearing forests have thickened this blanket.

Effects on the global climate

• Hotter heatwaves and record temperatures.
• Melting ice: Arctic sea ice, Greenland and Himalayan glaciers.
• Sea level rise from melting ice and warming oceans.
• Extreme rainfall and floods, and longer droughts.
• Stronger cyclones and shifting monsoons.
• Ocean acidification and coral bleaching.
• Biodiversity loss as species fail to move fast enough.

The Kyoto Protocol (1997)

• Adopted in 1997, in force from 2005.
• Binding targets for developed (Annex I) countries: on average 5.2% below 1990 levels in 2008–12.
• Based on common but differentiated responsibilities: no binding targets for developing countries.
• Covered six greenhouse gases.

Control measures under Kyoto

• Domestic cuts through clean energy and efficiency.
• Emissions trading among developed countries.
• Joint Implementation: projects in other developed countries.
• Clean Development Mechanism: projects in developing countries such as India earned credits.
• Forest sinks counted towards targets.
• The Doha Amendment (2012) set a second period to 2020.

Limits and what followed

• The US never ratified; Canada withdrew; big emerging emitters had no targets.
• The Paris Agreement (2015) replaced it with nationally determined contributions for all countries.
• Credits under CDM lost value after 2012, and some projects were questioned for additionality.
• Today's measures go further: renewables, carbon pricing, methane cuts, CCUS and forests.

Kyoto proved that the world could agree on binding climate rules; Paris proved that everyone had to be inside them.