UPSC Mains 2014 GS Paper 3 Q14: model answer
Drought has been recognized as a disaster in view of its spatial expanse, temporal duration, slow onset, and lasting effects on vulnerable sections. With a focus on the September 2010 guidelines from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), discuss the mechanisms for preparedness to deal with likely El Niño and La Niña fallouts in India.
What the question wants
Discuss mechanisms of preparedness for El Niño and La Niña effects in India, focusing on NDMA's September 2010 drought guidelines.
How to structure it
Drought nature, ENSO link, NDMA preparedness.
- Drought as a disaster
- El Niño and La Niña
- NDMA 2010 guidelines
- Other mechanisms
How to think it through
Drought: slow onset, wide area, long; meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socio-economic. ENSO: El Niño warms eastern Pacific, often weak Indian monsoon (2002, 2009, 2015, 2023); La Niña often good/excess rain and floods, colder winters. IOD modifies. NDMA 2010 guidelines on Management of Drought: monitoring and early warning (IMD, NRSC, NADAMS), drought declaration criteria, vulnerability mapping, contingency crop plans (ICAR-CRIDA), water conservation, watershed, MGNREGA, fodder banks, insurance, institutional mechanisms (Crisis Management Plan), knowledge, community. Manual for Drought Management 2016 updated 2020.
Model answer
In 2009, an El Niño year, India's monsoon rainfall fell about 22% below normal, the worst in decades. Farm output dropped and food prices rose. Drought is a disaster that arrives slowly, and El Niño often gives early notice of it.
El Niño and La Niña
- El Niño: warming of the eastern Pacific weakens the Indian monsoon; examples are 2002, 2009, 2015 and 2023.
- La Niña: cooling that often brings normal or excess rain, sometimes floods.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole can soften or worsen these effects.
NDMA's September 2010 drought guidelines
- Monitoring and early warning: IMD forecasts, satellite crop monitoring and rainfall tracking.
- Clear drought declaration criteria based on rainfall, crop and water indicators.
- Vulnerability mapping of drought-prone districts.
- Contingency crop plans for every district, prepared with ICAR, with short-duration seeds ready.
- Water conservation: watershed development, rainwater harvesting, recharge.
- Livelihood support: employment works under MGNREGA, fodder banks and cattle camps.
- Crop insurance and credit relief.
- Knowledge management and research on drought.
- Institutional set-up: crisis management groups at the Centre, states and districts.
Other mechanisms today
- The Manual for Drought Management (2016, revised 2020).
- PMFBY, PMKSY micro-irrigation and drought-tolerant varieties.
- Food buffer stocks and the PDS to keep prices stable.
- Drought-proofing works under MGNREGA, like farm ponds. A forecast of El Niño in April should become
a seed plan and a water plan by June.
Draw: A Pacific map: warm water off Peru (El Niño) and a weak monsoon arrow over India.
Keywords, cases and data to drop in
drought types, slow onset, El Niño 2009 (-22%), La Niña, IOD, NDMA drought guidelines 2010, contingency crop plans, CRIDA, MGNREGA, fodder banks, Manual for Drought Management 2016/2020, PMFBY.
Where most answers lose marks
- Writing about El Niño science without NDMA's preparedness mechanisms.
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Question text as printed in the official UPSC Civil Services (Main) question paper. The model answer is original Battle IAS work; use it to learn structure, not to memorise.
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